Market Intel
Harvest Ahead: Any Which Way Up
Harvest is fast approaching with the current seasonal market effects amplified by aggressive exporting, plentiful Brazilian corn and record soybeans, and ongoing tariff deal-making.
Soybean meal: With USDA trimming soybean acres, new crop basis prices are up for now. But longer term outlooks favor a big crop and lower SBM basis. Sources note some loosening of tight supplies of branded soy bypass protein product.
Canola meal: It’s now on a different track than SBM thanks to new Chinese duties on seed imports. So a lot more canola oil is coming into the U.S. Even so, the meal basis remains steady.
Amino acids: The lysine market is mixed (and mixed up) given ongoing European Union anti-dumping rulings against China. With possible additional U.S. tariffs ahead, sources see something like a two-tier market — some suppliers unloading product, others hanging on — which affects lysine as well as tryptophan, threonine, and valine. Again, there are stronger prices for DL methionine due to the shutdown of a major plant supplying the U.S.
Drought conditions are causing lower water levels in the Panama Canal. Expect slower container traffic from Asia, affecting micro ingredients coming from China as well as palm products from Indonesia and Malaysia.
Vitamins: Prices for vitamin A are trending down as Chinese plants come back on line. Also, vitamin E pricing is “creeping down” sources say. Meanwhile, vitamin D3 pricing is variable but steady overall as some suppliers are “sitting on inventory.”
Trace minerals: Copper is off the 50% tariff list, which has brought copper sulfate prices down even as copper chloride prices have risen. Zinc sulfate pricing remains steady. The price of branded Cu-Mn-Zn hydroxy product is up, despite a growing number of competing products in this space. Â
Palm & bypass fat products: Prices for palm oil and palm co-products are up sharply and rising, sources warn. Indonesia is set to impose higher levies. Biodiesel mandates play a role. A key supplier recommends forward contracting for Q1 delivery while supply is “currently stable but time-sensitive.”
P & K: Prices for potassium chloride (KCl) and phosphates are holding steady or rising slightly while magnesium oxide (MgO) prices are slightly higher, despite good supply of imported MgO. Â
Urea: Prices are down significantly with more supply delivered to the U.S. despite ongoing concerns over security of shipping through the Straits of Hormuz. Â
Blood meal: Prices are steady for now but likely to “bump up” in the period following the Labor Day holiday, sources expect. Â
Distillers: DDGS prices continue to trend lower, while processors try to optimize ethanol profitability in the face of a challenging fuels market.
Wheat midds: Prices are down slightly with contract values now below last year at this time. There’s currently very little concern over mycotoxins.
Soy hulls: Prices are down across the Tri-State with processing plants coming back online after summer shutdowns. Â
Over the horizon… Still looking ahead to big crops of corn and soybeans in U.S., with exports strong even as other trade deals remain elusive.