
Market Intel
Murky Tariff Future:
Market Wizards Not Exempt
The murky future of U.S. tariffs on imports — including micro ingredients from China — is clouding the crystal balls of even the most experienced market magicians.
Meanwhile, there’s a rush to get products into this country before the current tariff freeze thaws.
Amino acids: “Tariffed” or not, most amino acids are now a “quiet buyers’ market.” Market Intel sources point to Q3 pricing lower than Q2 as China-based suppliers remain reluctant to pass along even minimal tariff price hikes given U.S. trade policy uncertainties. As mentioned last month, new tariff rates do not apply to lysine and threonine but do apply to tryptophan. DL methionine prices remain steady but hydroxy analog prices are creeping up given ongoing supply allocation.
Vitamins: Likewise a quiet market with slightly lower prices for tariff-exempt vitamins A and E with non-exempt vitamin D3 prices steady to higher.
Trace minerals: The market for copper sulfate is relatively quiet, too, with lower prices for now. However, Market Intel sources expect rising prices in Q3. Pricing of Zinc sulfate is steady.
Palm & bypass fat products: Prices of palm products are steady now but heading up if scheduled tariffs take effect. Calcium salts pricing is backing off given more readily available supplies to satisfy demand for palm-Ca salt blends. Rumen bypass fats are more available, too.
Soybean meal: Basis and board prices for SBM are steady in a wait-and-see mode. “Relatively relaxed,” Market Intel sources say. However, at this juncture almost any factor — weather, crop conditions, etc. — can move the market. Meanwhile, pricing for soy bypass protein products is stronger thanks to spring-summer processor shutdowns and steady demand.
Canola meal: Steady basis and board prices persist despite tighter inventories due to processor shutdowns, which often run through July.
P & K: There are adequate supplies of phosphates, potassium chloride (KCl), and magnesium oxide (MgO) and prices remain steady.
Urea: Prices moved up again in May, thanks to supply chain challenges getting product up the rivers from the Gulf. Market Intel sources suggest prices should ease getting into summer. Â
Blood meal: Prices are coming down quickly now in the seasonal surplus, but are likely to steady as summer progresses. Reciprocal tariff risks are clouding U.S. pork and beef exports to China.
Distillers: DDGS prices are steady given predictions of seasonal ethanol availability and demand.
Wheat midds: Prices are steady to slightly lower with processors trying to move more during the summer.
Soy hulls: Prices are steady to slightly lower. Larger discounts obtain for loose hulls versus pellets.
Over the horizon… Tariff turmoil continues to roil markets with unexpected knock-on effects like tightening ocean freight availability with the rush to get micro ingredients into the U.S.