Market Intel
Tariff Questions Abound:
Prices for Micros in Holding Pattern
The U.S. administration’s announcement of unprecedented import tariffs last week continues to rebound worldwide. Feed ingredient exporters abroad and importers at home are scrambling to unscramble cost effects and pricing implications.
Suppliers of micro ingredients from China, palm products from Southeast Asia, urea from Eastern Europe, and many others are weighing their options, shifting to a new paradigm of global trade.Â
Soybean meal: SBM board prices are down but the basis remains steady. Meanwhile, USDA projects a record Brazilian soybean crop — up 2% year-on-year — with much of it going to China. Brazil supplies 40% of global soybean market versus 28% for U.S. at last USDA accounting. Soy products basis continues steady.
Canola meal: The rush of Canadian trucks hauling south has ebbed, given better understood tariff impacts. Ag Canada had forecast higher prices but Market Intel sources see steady board prices and basis for now.
Amino acids: Somewhat softer lysine prices contrast with a slight rise for DL methionine. Worth noting that rumen-protected methionine remains in good supply with steady prices. Overall, the AA market is quiet with steady to slightly lower prices as the new tariffs on China have exporters in re-think mode: How much additional cost to absorb FOB?
Vitamins: China-based exporters are likewise holding off major price changes for now. Questions remain for product already at sea, bound for U.S. ports. Vitamin E prices are down slightly while A, and D3 remain steady.
Trace minerals: Hello! Copper sulfate is on the rise again — sharply — while zinc sulfate prices remain steady.
P & K: Markets for phosphates, potassium chloride (KCl), and magnesium oxide (MgO) remain quiet but Market Intel sources suggest there’s a lot of adjustments going on “under the radar.”
Urea: Following the price jump in mid-Q1, urea prices are in a holding pattern as traders assess tariff and counter tariff impacts. Much of the spring planting fertilizer supply is already in store. Russia remains a main U.S. and global supplier, despite ongoing war-related sanctions on other exports.
Blood meal: Prices are steady to down slightly. Market Intel sources expect them to trend lower. Expect prices to rise going into summer.
Distillers: With DDGS prices down slightly, unknowns about counter tariff effects on exports are tempering expectations. Nonetheless, old corn crop VOM issues are in the rear view and current quality looks good. Still looking ahead to variables from spring producer downtime, summer ethanol demand, competing protein pricing.
Wheat midds: Prices are holding steady despite less uptake on the poultry side due to H5N1 virus. Market Intel sources note that midds become more attractive for dairy rations when soy processors begin spring shutdowns.
Soy hulls: Now well past the seasonal tipping point, prices are steady to lower but variable going into the lower demand summer period.Â
Palm & bypass fat products: Palm product prices are down, in part due to tariff uncertainties, particularly the difference between tariffs on imports from Indonesia versus Malaysia. What about product already half-way across the Pacific? Meanwhile, calcium salt prices continue rising with palm-Ca salt blends even more popular. Â
Over the horizon… Feed ingredient traders worldwide are assessing impacts of the unprecedented “Liberation Day” U.S. tariffs. They’re more than a “paradigm shift.”   Â