Market Intel
Paradigm Shift in Progress
Tariff uncertainties dominate Market Intel at this writing…
- Canada and Mexico — 25% import tariffs — to be enforced or still looming?
- Likewise, another 10% on top of current China import tariffs — with potential impact on micro ingredient costs?
- European Union tariffs ahead?
Soybean meal: USDA projection for less soybean acres (and more corn acres) plus better crop grow out and harvest weather in South America are further softening basis and moving board prices lower. Soy products basis continues to move in lock-step.
Canola meal: At this writing, there’re more Canadian trucks hauling south across the border in advance of threatened tariffs. Market Intel sources see lower board prices and project lower basis into July.
Amino acids: Prices are softer across the range with good product availability. As yet, there’s no apparent effect of H5N1 culling of layer flocks, which has reduced the U.S. inventory by more than 40 million birds. DL methionine, lysine, and tryptophan are readily available and rumen-protected methionine is more available.
Vitamins: Vitamin availability is improving thanks to reduced supply hold-ups. Prices for vitamins E, A, and D3 are steady, but the “China tariff effect” looms.
Trace minerals: Likewise, additional tariffs can impact prices ahead, but overall it’s still a quiet market with copper sulfate and zinc sulfate pricing steady to a bit softer.
P & K: Phosphate prices are up again slightly, with potassium chloride (KCl) steady and magnesium oxide (MgO) up with something of a premium for quality domestic product.
Wheat midds: Based on trending spot market prices and steadier supply, Market Intel sources expect midds to become more attractive for rations later this month and on into spring.
Blood meal: Prices are pushing up again and sources suggest no let up until April — good milk prices are keeping quality protein in the rations.
Distillers: DDGS prices looked to be ready to weaken but are steady for now. Counter tariffs could weaken exports and prices, while the usual unknowns — spring producer downtime, summer ethanol demand, competing proteins — may be even more variable this year.
Soy hulls: Just past the tipping point, prices are weaker going forward, ahead of summertime depressed value in rations.Â
Urea: Prices are up as U.S. purchases are catching up with fertilizer demand ahead of spring planting.
Palm & bypass fat products: Calcium salt prices continue to work higher on strong demand, even as palm product prices are trending lower. “Creative formulation” is at work with an increase in Ca salt-palm blends. Multiple variables — tariffs, ocean freight charges, and Canal questions — continue to confuse markets going into Q2 and Q3.
Over the horizon… With more than half of the new administration’s “first 100 days” to come, likely there’ll be more unprecedented executive action during the paradigm shift in progress.