Market Intel

Blinder with Less Data

During “Soy Sea Change” and New Crop Harvest

China ranks as the world’s largest soybean customer. In its ongoing trade disputes with the U.S., China-based soy processors are largely replacing U.S. beans with those from South America, mainly from Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina.

This “soy sea change” keeps a lot more beans and meal at home, despite market optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal sometime soon. Meanwhile, the current soy tide is still coming in for China with much of Argentina’s 2024-25 soy harvest already on its way. A report late last month suggests Argentine exporters may be close to doubling last season’s performance, now accelerated by removal of taxes on commodities to further boost farm sales.

The current U.S. government shut down includes a hold on reporting key ag market data with the risk to increase uncertainty in feed ingredient supply and pricing.

Soybean meal: New crop basis prices are steady and the board higher. Upcoming China trade talks contribute to the positive vibes. 

Canola meal: Basis is steady to weaker, but canola meal is following SBM on the board.

Amino acids: The lysine market is showing somewhat weaker pricing, while still awaiting action on the European Union’s anti-dumping rulings against China. Meanwhile, tryptophan, threonine, and valine markets remain steady. Prices for DL methionine are steady while liquid product is higher and hydroxy analog higher still.

Market Intel sources say Panama Canal operators are speeding up paperwork in order to reduce the queue of container ships from Asia, which affects micro ingredients coming from China as well as palm products from Indonesia and Malaysia. 

Vitamins: Prices for most vitamins are steady or continuing to creep down, depending on vendor inventories and expectations for Q1, with Chinese New Year already a factor.

Trace minerals: Copper prices are volatile — copper sulfate and copper chloride sometimes moving in opposite directions. Meanwhile, zinc sulfate pricing remains steady along with branded Cu-Mn-Zn hydroxy products.

Palm & bypass fat products: Prices for palm oil and palm co-products continue to work higher. Supplies remain “stable but time-sensitive” and buyers are looking at forward contracts into Q1.

P & K: Prices for potassium chloride (KCl), phosphates, and magnesium oxide (MgO) prices are holding steady. But Market Intel sources see a good chance they’ll go higher later this quarter.

Urea: Prices are steady with very little news to shake things up, while time is ticking down to spring planting demand.

Blood meal: Prices are slightly higher looking ahead to the next big holiday — Thanksgiving.

Distillers: DDGS prices have moved higher on tight inventories as processors cope with plant shutdowns. Sources expect the market to soften, which largely depends on the size of the new corn crop.

Wheat midds: Prices finally are moving higher, still with very little concern over mycotoxins.

Soy hulls: Prices are trending higher as sources report resellers are “working the market hard” with any extra old crop bought up already.

Over the horizon… Soybean harvest is moving ahead quickly in Illinois and Indiana, which are well ahead of Michigan and Ohio. Hopefully, USDA data will be there to track progress. 

Maybe available soon: October WASDE Report.

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